Layth Kraidi, Researcher; Raj Shah, PhD, FHEA; Wilfred Matipa, PhD, AFHEA; and Fiona Borthwick, PhD, FHEA.
Liverpool John Moores University
Liverpool, England, UK
Building new Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) without identifying and analyzing the Influencing Risk Factors (IRFs) could cause project delay and have a significant impact on the safety of the projects at the construction and operation stages. Hence, it is essential to assess the IRFs that are applicable to the OGP projects and manage them by quantifying their impact on the projects in an accurate way. The potential IRFs were identified via an extensive literature review, and they were analyzed using the findings of a questionnaire survey and the fuzzy logic theory. This paper aims to quantify the impact of the recorded IRFs on the project’s duration and forecast the probability of the project being completed in time. The methodology of this paper includes allocating the Risk Index (RI) values of each IRF to the work activities of the projects, applying the risk distributing methods, and calculating the impact of the IRFs on the duration of each activity of the project using Monte Carlo Simulation. This paper will be useful in providing a suitable measure for the IRFs in OGPs projects, and will aid in reducing their impact on project duration and improving the certainty of the projects delivery.
Key Words: Oil and gas pipeline projects, Monte Carlo Simulation, construction and pipeline risk, delay, and project duration